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Asa Boxer's avatar

Older folk who've fallen into the cognitive trap of certainty, in many cases, have done so only recently.... since the lockdowns. These were people who beforehand showed some curiosity.

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RZB's avatar

Always interesting to hear a generalization from a statistic of one about a large diverse population. In any case you wrote well about your personal life experiences.

The characterization of the US polity as a Red-Blue divide misses how dynamic are these coalitions and how they both change dramatically over time. A major driving force in US voter choices is Fear which often overwhelms self interest, whether Red or Blue. Of similar magnitude is Anger over something.

As long as the population is able to vote freely, there will always be hope.

From ChatGPT

"Fear and anger significantly influence voter behavior in the United States, often shaping political attitudes, decision-making, and turnout. Here's how these emotions can overwhelm voter behavior:

1. Heightened Partisanship

Fear: Fear of societal changes, economic downturns, or perceived threats (e.g., crime, immigration) can lead voters to align more strongly with political parties that promise protection or stability.

Anger: Anger towards opposing parties, political figures, or perceived injustices can drive voters to adopt more rigid partisan positions, reducing willingness to compromise or consider alternative viewpoints.

2. Increased Voter Turnout

Fear and anger both serve as powerful motivators. Fear can compel people to vote defensively, while anger can energize voters to participate in elections to express dissatisfaction. For example, voter turnout surged in the 2018 and 2020 U.S. elections, driven in part by polarized issues and strong emotional responses to political leadership.

3. Influence on Issue Salience

Fear: When political campaigns emphasize fear, such as concerns over national security or economic instability, voters tend to prioritize those issues over others.

Anger: Campaigns that invoke anger about corruption, inequality, or social injustice can shift focus toward reform-oriented policies and candidates.

4. Susceptibility to Political Messaging

Negative Campaigning: Fear and anger are often exploited through negative ads and rhetoric, reinforcing distrust of opponents and amplifying emotional responses. Research shows that negative ads tend to be more memorable and impactful than positive ones.

Echo Chambers: Social media and partisan news outlets can amplify fear and anger by reinforcing preexisting beliefs, leading voters to perceive opposing views as existential threats.

5. Polarization and Division

These emotions contribute to a more divided electorate, reducing common ground between different political ideologies. Fear of the "other side" winning often motivates defensive voting, where voters choose a candidate not out of support, but to prevent the opposing side from gaining power.

6. Cognitive Bias and Decision-Making

Fear: Can lead to risk-averse decision-making, causing voters to favor conservative or status quo policies.

Anger: Can lead to more impulsive decisions, with voters favoring candidates who promise bold, immediate change.

In summary, fear and anger can overwhelm rational decision-making processes, driving voters to react emotionally rather than critically, thereby influencing the overall direction of elections and political discourse."

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